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After netting nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, City forward Erling Haaland has begun the season in spectacular form.

While it is not his most impressive beginning to a season - he scored 11 goals in his initial seven matches in two seasons ago and double digits last year - it still puts him three goals ahead in the early running for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that none of his nine goals have been from the penalty spot makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the prize so early in the season.

To begin with, the quantity of strikes he has already scored - and, just as importantly, the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's receiving.

Furthermore, the slow start his usual rivals for the honor have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) indicates how many goals a top-flight footballer has historically scored from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistics boffins, but by English top-flight records.

When examining at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this campaign from open play, the Norway forward is obtaining considerably more quality chances to score than anyone else.

In fact, even if Haaland didn't excel at scoring from situations than every other footballer in the league, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as all other players.

Opportunity Analysis

This is illustrated by breaking down the number and quality of chances that attackers have encountered in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this term, twelve additional compared to all other attackers.

This is actually not that remarkable for him - he had actually taken more non-penalty shots at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the standard of scoring situations he has had this season. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Regarding attackers registering at least 10 shots, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to convert per attempt - thanks to a couple of tap-ins against West Ham United and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG rating per effort he had at the opening of last term.

Essentially, the opportunities he has had in 2025-26 have been significantly more straightforward to score from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the beginning of last season.

Historical Comparison

Opening a term so impressively is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. Following seven matches last term he had netted ten times - a quartet more than anyone else and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Anfield star who won the Golden Boot with twenty-nine strikes, a touchdown more than the Etihad attacker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has scored half the number goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this stage last season.

In fact this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League term the Pharaohs star has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. Upon reviewing at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has scored as many goals as the remaining ten footballers put together so far.

Be it because of physical problems - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - protracted transfer stories in one particular striker's situation or simply because their clubs have faced difficulties (several proven attackers), Haaland's likely rivals in the contest for the top scorer award have not fired so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

While Haaland looks the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League scoring title, what about the Continental scoring award that is given to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's top-five leagues?

That contest is far more competitive at this opening period because two elite attackers have also started in excellent condition, with eleven and nine strikes respectively.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the top chance quality metric of the three without having taken any penalties positions him as the favourite.

But since the two continental superstars are two of the best goal-scorers in continental soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the battle continues intensely.